Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
